Welcome to health and care in Devon 2035
Examine stories from four divergent futures, learn how they have evolved and what they might mean for us today
The four divergent future health care systems described here are all plausible but not future predictions. The scenarios are storylines set in a fixed point in the future. They are a stimulus to have new conversations about what we want the future to be like and for us to be critical and creative participants in shaping that future. We could well see elements of each scenario play out over the coming decade and beyond.
These scenarios should be regarded as a set, constructed and based on the relationships between a number of core drivers-of-change. For example, integration between health and social care in the South West, increasing inequalities in the South West, with a massive increase in the use of technology in health care. Each scenario is weighted to explore different outcomes of these core drivers (critical uncertainties).
These scenarios are also an invitation to you, to consider how best to avoid the elements in the scenarios you dislike and discuss innovative ways to move forwards towards the aspects of the scenarios you do like. The scenarios can be used to reappraise strategic assumptions and think about workforce planning assumptions for the long and near term.
Facing an uncertain future in health and care
Now is a good time to work with these materials. The impact of Covid-19 has certainly changed the nature of health care in the short term and, although it is too early to know what the long-term impact of the pandemic will be in the South West, these scenarios provide insights, and clues to some of the possible intended and unintended consequences of the pandemic.
We hope you will find the scenarios and associated material a useful framework for your team and partners. The scenarios are intended to be used to:
- bring people together to reimagine what you want health care in the South West to look like.
- provoke debate and use the detailed toolkits to consider, for example, workforce development and workforce planning and the role of leadership.